Let the Dance Begin!
Most of us Sri Lankans are currently in a bizarre situation; which we are not quite used to, where both you and I are frustrated of not being able to get back to our normal lives.
So trying to make use of this granted time wisely, I made it a habit to research COVID 19 updates on a daily basis since its inception, which I think is common to most of you. I worked with visualizations and Spatio temporal analysis of this outbreak which is kind of my area of expertise. All I wanted to see was, if we were nearing a day that we could finally say “ It’s over!” and if so what actually we can do about it.
Going forth, this morning I came across the news, “ GMOA proposes Hammer and Dance Theory’ to control COVID-19". As most of you, this was completely alien to me at first, but this one article made me curious to find out more about it. And here I am sharing some of the facts gathered since I believe it’s critical for all us with the current situation in Sri Lanka. Here’s what I’m going to cover:
- What is Hammer and Dance?
- The Hammer
- The Dance
- The Key Decisive Factor : R₀
- Does this theory actually work in real world?
- How can we contribute?
What is Hammer and Dance?
The Hammer and Dance Theory is initially introduced in the widely praised Medium article Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance by Tomas Pueyo and his collaborators. Amid many measures taken around the world in response to COVID 19 being sustained for a few weeks, this approach will be instrumental to combat the issue in the long term.
The Theory of Hammer and dance incorporates two main stages: The Hammer, an initial aggressive action, followed by The Dance, a period of effective attentiveness.
Let’s have a descriptive look at the two stages:
The Hammer
This is the stage where we have to act quickly and aggressively. It is like an initial suppression stage which typically involves heavy social distancing, isolation, quarantines, contact tracing, testing, travel bans etc. This is more or less similar to what we practice now in Sri Lanka but with much more DISCIPLINE!
The good thing is, the time needed for a Hammer is a matter of few weeks, and does not extend for months if it’s properly in place. As proposed by the GMOA, if we adequately follow the measures mandated, within a few weeks the outbreak will be in control and we will be in a better place to address it.In other words, then it’ll be time for the next phase of the Theory: the Dance!
The Dance
The Dance is a relatively long period between the Hammer and finding an effective Treatment for the Virus. Since we have controlled the virus during the Hammer, the restrictions will not be really harsh, in other words during the Dance our lives will be close to normal. Essentially the measures of social Distancing will be tightened up or loosen down based on how cases evolve. And the key decisive factor of the dance is the Rate of Transmission (R₀)
The Key Decisive Factor: R₀
The Rate of Transmission (R₀)is the number of new cases that an existing case would generate on average. According to the COVID 19 stats, in an unprepared country during the few weeks that somebody is infected, they infect between 2 and 3 other people on average. Based on how scientists quantify the intensity of an outbreak , if R₀>1, the infections grow exponentially into an epidemic.
The goal during the Hammer is to get this R₀ closer to zero as soon as possible. Then once we move into the stage of Dance we just need to take measures to hover R closer to 1 as much as possible and lower it below 1 in the long term which could possibly prevent a new outbreak.
Does this theory actually Work in real world?
YES, the stats show that this theory has been successful in several nations.
- In Wuhan, it is calculated that R₀ was initially 3.9, and after the lock down and centralized quarantine, it went down to 0.32.
- Outside of China, South Korea was a serious victim of this corona virus outbreak. But yet they are NOT locked down at home. The outbreak lasted only for few weeks and it’s now largely under control. They achieved this using aggressive testing, contact tracing, and enforced quarantines and isolation during the Hammer Stage.
As reflected through the above stats , this strategy can have a drastic impact on the countries in crisis. Hence it’s vital for the governments to immediately take the most intense measures. So, as suggested by GMOA it is important for Sri Lanka, to establish a formal process implementing the theory of Hammer and Dance which will cause less damage to economic and societal aspects.
This formal process can be carried out in the following steps.(Source : Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance)
- List all the initiatives that the government can take to reduce R₀
- Determine and try to quantify the benefit of implementing the initiatives(i.e Determine the extent to which R₀ can be reduced)
- Determine the cost of the measures in economic , social and ethical perspectives
- Rank the initiatives based on their cost-benefit
- Select the initiatives that give the highest reduction in R for the lowest cost
How can WE contribute?
I believe this is a good initiative which Sri Lanka is trying to go forward with. But the success of it relies entirely upon us, the people, all SRI LANKANS, irrespective of religion, caste, creed, rich or poor.
Once it’s properly formalized and executed it’s our duty to act with discipline. To save our own life and save lives of people we love. It’s no rocket science. Our contribution is very simple and straightforward. Stay home, stay clean and avoid every possible way of infection and abide by the instructions given by the relevant authorities.
It’s a hard time for all of us but if one of us just gives up on it I’m needless to say how things can get worse! It is no secret that nature has given us a wonderful opportunity, a blessing in disguise to be united and contribute for the survival of humankind, that nature has given us an opportunity to take a small break, spend more time with your family and start a hobby.
Let the dance begin!
